# Table 3: Sovereign Risk Amplification — The Doom Loop

Does the combination of aging + pension spending + debt accelerate sovereign risk?

| Model | N | R² | Key Finding |
|:---|---:|---:|:---|
| Baseline: OADR → rating | 909 | 0.147 | old_dep=1.480 (p=0.497) |
| OADR + Pension → rating | 781 | 0.243 | old_dep=-4.235 (p=0.213); pension_spending_gdp=0.048 (p=0.026) |
| OADR + ExpGap → rating | 904 | 0.146 | old_dep=1.518 (p=0.486); exp_rev_gap=-0.000 (p=0.985) |
| Doom loop: OADR×Debt×ExpGap → rating | 904 | 0.148 | old_dep=1.487 (p=0.496); exp_rev_gap=0.001 (p=0.928) |
| OADR×Debt → rating | 904 | 0.216 | old_dep=4.749 (p=0.078); exp_rev_gap=-0.001 (p=0.855) |
| OADR×Debt → spread | 667 | 0.155 | old_dep=-4.551 (p=0.126); exp_rev_gap=0.024 (p=0.139) |
| Pension×OADR → spread | 658 | 0.187 | old_dep=-4.090 (p=0.494); pension_spending_gdp=0.103 (p=0.070) |
